How Nigeria’s Electoral Body Disenfranchised Over a Million Teenagers in the 2023 General Elections
When Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) abruptly halted voter’s registration for the 2023 General Elections on July 31, 2022, four months ahead of the constitutionally prescribed deadline, it effectively shut the door for over a million would-be eligible teenage voters — and that’s a conservative estimate.
All teenagers who would turn 18, the age of eligibility to vote, between that date and the originally scheduled closure of registration on November 27, 2022, were denied their democratic rights.
Furthermore, without any provisions to register them ahead of time, any teenager who turned 18 between the end of registration and the election on February 25, 2023, was systematically disenfranchised.
As a recently turned 18-year-old and a pre-college graduate back home during the electoral proceedings, I, too, found myself disenfranchised. This experience catalyzed my decision to probe the issue.
The following month, after noticing a glaring lack of coverage by traditional media on this overt infringement, I joined an independent outlet in the country’s capital, the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR), becoming, as far as I know, its youngest ever reporter.
However, this particular strand of disenfranchisement extended far beyond individuals like myself, affecting an estimated 1 to 2 million Nigerian teenagers.
Methodology for Estimating the Disenfranchised Teenage Population
To quantify the impact of INEC’s abrupt cessation of voter registration on eligible teenagers, I accessed birth rate and population data from United Nation’s Population Department to calculate how many teenagers turned 18 in 2022 (’04s) and 2023 (‘05s). I assumed even distribution across the year and obtained a daily birth rate, which I then multiplied by the number of concerned days.
Steps:
- Initial Estimate for July 31, 2022 — November 27, 2022:
- Population in 2004: 132 million
- Birth Rate in 2004: 42.9 per 1,000
# To calculate annual births
Annual Births = (Birth Rate / 1,000) * Total Population
Annual Births = (42.9 / 1,000) * 132,000,000 = 5,662,800
# To calculate daily births
Daily Births = Annual Births / 365
Daily Births = 5,662,800 / 365 ≈ 15,517
# To calculate births for 119 days
Births in Period = Daily Births * 119
Births in Period = 15,517 * 119 = 1,847,554- Approximately 1,847,554 children born during this period.
2. Extended Estimate from November 27, 2022 — February 25, 2023:
- Population in 2005: 135 million
- Birth Rate in 2005: 42.1 per 1,000
# To calculate annual births for 2005
Annual Births = (Birth Rate / 1,000) * Total Population
Annual Births = (42.1 / 1,000) * 135,000,000 = 5,683,500
# To calculate daily births for 2005
Daily Births = Annual Births / 365
Daily Births = 5,683,500 / 365 ≈ 15,570
# To calculate births for the period from January 1, 2023, to February 25, 2023 (56 days)
Births in Period (Jan 1 - Feb 25) = Daily Births * 56
Births in Period = 15,570 * 56 = 872,928
# To calculate births for the period from November 27, 2022, to December 31, 2022 (34 days)
Births in Period (Nov 27 - Dec 31) = Daily Births * 34
Births in Period = 15,517 * 34 = 527,587- Approximately 1,400,515 children born during this period.
3. Combined Total:
# To calculate an estimate number of disenfranchised new teenage voters
Total Number of Births across Concerned Period = 1,847,554 (initial period) + 1,400,515 (extended period)
Total Number of Births across Concerned Period = 3,248,069
Estimate Number of Citizens turning 18 across Concerned Period = 3,248,069This estimate does not factor death rate and migration effects . It also assumes even distribution of births across the year — considerations which are further discussed at the end of the report. Nevertheless, given the young age group and ranged population estimates, I am certain the actual figures are over a million, possibly around 2 million.
The foundational aspects of the following report were supported by insight and resources accessed through my association with ICIR in 2022.
Timeline of Disenfranchisement
Despite the nation hitting a record number of registered voters for the 2023 general election, millions of eligible citizens remained systematically disenfranchised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
INEC suspended the Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) exercise on July 31, 2022. The following day, they confirmed receiving 12.3 million new registrations, taking the sum of registered voters to 96.3 million–a 14.6 per cent increase from the 2019 general election.
Notwithstanding, this deadline did not align with provisions in Section 9(6), 10(4), and 12(1) of the Electoral Act 2022.
Section 9(6) of the Electoral Act 2022 mandates that
“The registration of voters, updating and revision of the Register of Voters under this section shall not stop later than 90 days before any election covered by this Act.”
Given that the concerned election was slated for February 25, 2023, the earliest constitutionally appropriate date for the close of voter registration was November 27, 2022 (90 days before the election). Then Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila corroborated this timeline during a plenary in June 15, 2022.
Nevertheless, INEC closed its online portal for online pre-processing – an option for those who wanted expedited registration when they visited a site — on May 31, 2022, and eventually suspended in-person registration on July 31, 2022.
Additionally, Section 10(1) reads:
“Without prejudice to section 9 (6), there shall be continuous registration of all persons qualified to be registered voters.”
Finally, Section 12(1) indicates that a person is qualified to register as a voter if they are a citizen, have ‘attained the age of 18,’ and originate from a Local Government Area Council or Ward covered by the registration centre.
The contradiction between INEC’s decision and the Electoral Act could not be clearer.
The premature closure of the voter registration process, therefore, not only contravened specific provisions of the Electoral Act but also directly infringed upon the rights of citizens as outlined in Section 12. By denying registration to eligible citizens who turned 18 after the closure date, INEC effectively withheld their constitutional right to vote, as they could no longer present themselves to registration officers.
At that time, the top of their webpage notice read, “The CVR exercise has been suspended. Access to log-in to check the status of your completed applications will soon be restored.” For those who were still eager to click the ‘start registration’ icon, they found it to be a dead link.
No teenager who turned 18 — and became eligible — after INEC’s deadline was officially able to participate in the upcoming elections.
Although a small percentage may have found ways to circumvent the process, most were unequivocally disenfranchised.
In weeks to come, INEC would attempt to counter other claims of disenfranchisement. In one accusation, it defended itself by arguing that out of the reported 7 million unprocessed online registrations, 4.1 million finalized the process physically, and 2.9 million did not complete the process by the deadline.
However, given the constitutional references earlier alluded to, the latter group should still be eligible to complete their registration. They, too, are institutionally disenfranchised.
Disagreement and Alterations in the Registration Deadline
In fact, INEC initially planned to suspend the registration process a month earlier, on June 20, 2022 (240 days before the election). However, they faced public opposition and a lawsuit filed by Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) and 185 concerned Nigerians.
SERAP had asked the court to “declare unconstitutional, illegal, and incompatible with international standards the failure of the electoral body to extend the deadline for voter registration to allow eligible Nigerians to exercise their rights.”
The suit was spurred by INEC’s decision to extend the deadline for the conduction of primaries by six days — from June 3, 2022, to June 9, 2022 — without making similar accommodations for the voter’s registration. At that time, the Commission had already closed the online pre-registration–which ended on May 30, 2022 (271 days before the election).
Part of the suit read: “Extending the voter registration deadline would provide more time for eligible voters, including young people, the elderly, people living with disability, as well as those resident in states facing security challenges and living in IDP camps to participate in the 2023 elections.”
“Extending the deadline for voter registration would be entirely consistent with constitutional and international standards, and the Electoral Act. Any such extension would also not impact negatively on INEC’s election calendar and activities.”
On June 23, 2022, a few days after this hearing, the Vanguard reported that then Chairman, House Committee on Electoral Matters, Aisha Dukku, assured journalists that INEC had agreed to extend the deadline for registration from June 30, 2022.
“We invited INEC Chairman and he came and we presented the request and resolutions of the House and the resolutions are: INEC to extend the registration of all Nigerians of 18 years that want to be registered to get their PVCs. In the motion we mentioned at least two month which is 60 days,” she declared.
Dukku noted that there was an unprecedented number of people coming out for registration. Furthermore, she expressed the House’s obligation to afford Nigerians their constitutional right to be registered.
Despite the House’s 60-day recommendation, the national commissioner and chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee of INEC, Festus Okoye, announced that the ongoing CVR would end on July 31, 2022 (a 31-day extension).
He also disclosed that the commission extended the daily time frame for the registration exercise from six to eight hours daily (9:00 am to 5:00 pm). INEC also began registration during weekends; until then, voters could only perform the exercise on weekdays.
Despite the mutual acknowledgement from the House of Representatives and INEC about the need to grant the citizens their constitutional rights, the recommended and eventual extension both fell short of the constitutional prerogative.
INEC’s reason for the decision for suspending registration
When quizzed about appeals for an extension in August 2022, then chief press secretary to the INEC chairman, Rotimi Oyekanmi, asserted that the registration process would reopen only after the 2023 general elections.
He defended the decision stating that the Commission needed ‘ample time to undergo other registration processes.’ Some of these include cleaning up the register and printing the permanent voters’ cards (PVCs).
“The Commission is pleased to see the renewed citizens’ interest in the Continuous Voter Registration, CVR, exercise. Unfortunately, the CVR would have to be suspended…because there is a lot that the Commission is required to do under the electoral legal framework, in relation to voter registration and the process of compiling the register requires ample time to accomplish.”
However, this rationale, again, directly contradicts Sections 9(6) and 10(1) of the Electoral Act 2022, which mandate continuous voter registration and specify that updating and revising the Register of Voters should not cease later than 90 days before any election. By implementing an earlier deadline, INEC not only ignored these legal requirements but also effectively disenfranchised millions of citizens, undermining the legislative intent to ensure broad voter participation and the integrity of the electoral process.
Ironically, with the implementation of the deadline, INEC already contravened the provisions of the same electoral legal framework, thereby disenfranchising millions of citizens in the process.
Problems during the course of the registration process
I spoke with the program manager of Yiaga Africa’s election department, Paul James, to get an overview of the extenuating circumstances leading to the situation. James has professionally monitored elections across the continent for over eleven years and has played a vital role in strategic planning for the upcoming elections.
Yiaga Africa comprises people with a shared commitment to promote ‘democratic governance, human rights, and civic engagement.’
When asked about the situation, James pointed challenges he observed during the opening registration process.
He said, “It was not seamless though. There were some concerns about the locations of these centres. Some of them were inaccessible to everybody.” The INEC chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, acknowledged some of these difficulties before the commencement of the CVR in April 2021.
“This is the first [time] where INEC decided to engage both the physical and online registration,” James noted. The ICIR’s report after the announcement of Voter’s Registration elaborated this. According to Yakubu, voters could begin registration online and then do their biometric verifications at designated centres.
However, James noted that there was no uniformity in the delivery of the registration process. Some INEC personnel made it compulsory to complete the online registration before coming in person. This led to an extended processing time of around 5 minutes per person.
Paul believes that procrastination compounded these registration difficulties. He also indicated that the confirmations of who the presidential aspirants were spurred a surge in voter registration.
“Then, we saw a renewed interest in the process which may be occasioned by the new expectations: party primaries happened and a realistic awareness of the candidates that we have and the fact that those were the ones that would be on the ballot.”
James also acknowledged reports of INEC demanding bribes at the point of physical registration. The ICIR covered one of such incidents in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Officials had informed residents that they would only register a hundred people. Then, they would demand bribes to include those who did not make that cut.
INEC’s insufficient communication on registration deadlines
During the reinstatement of the CVR in April 2021, The ICIR reported the summarily timeline given by Mahmud Yakubu. In that report, he indicated that CVR would happen until the third quarter of 2022.
However, the ‘Timetable and Schedule of Activities for 2023 General Elections’, published by INEC on February 26, 2022, never indicated a date for the conclusion of the registration exercises.
In fact, the first and only mention of any matter directly affecting voter registration comes in the 11th of 14 entries. INEC marked January 12, 2023 as the date for publication of the official Voters Register–165 days after the close of the registration exercises.
Citizens were effectively in the dark about when the process would conclude.
On March 4, 2022, the chief press secretary to the INEC chairman, Rotimi Oyekanmi, commented on this uncertainty from the Commission. “The commission has not decided yet, but normally, from what we know, we will suspend the CVR between six to seven months before the general elections to enable us to clean up the voter register and print the PVCs of those who have registered so far.”
What his statement reveals is the evidently recurrent nature of this disenfranchisement. Every election year, newly eligible teenagers lose their democratic right to cater to the Commission’s tardy processes. And two to three months of would-be eligible teenagers are systematically disenfranchised by the absence of pre-registration protocols.
In the build-up to the 2019 general elections, CVR was temporarily suspended on August 31 2018. The inconsistencies in these deadlines, and the subsequent disenfranchisement of citizens, call for further review of the electoral act – and INEC’s implementation of it.
On November 22 2022, a federal high court in Abuja acknowledged a fresh lawsuit that INEC ought not to have ceased the CVR exercise till 90 days before the upcoming general elections — as per the Electoral act. Justice Inyang Ekwo, however, noted that the court was unable to direct the electoral body to reopen the registration exercises that the plaintiffs sought.
“This court is unable to grant relief number three of the plaintiffs, because going by the date of this judgment, from the date of this judgment, the defendant will have just a few days away from 90 days before the general election of February 25, 2023, and March 11 2023.″
Here, the story ends — a belated court ruling that bore fruit too late to make a difference, depriving millions of Nigerians of their constitutional right in the 2023 general elections.
So when the General Elections took place on February 25, 2023, over a million teenagers saw the proceedings evade them, and other aforementioned groups of disenfranchised voters watched from the sidelines, unable to participate.
Bola Tinubu was declared the winner with 8.8 million votes, Atiku Abubakar with 7 million, Peter Obi with 6.1 million, and Rabiu Kwankwaso with 1.5 million.
This cycle of disenfranchisement risks repeating itself if no changes are made to the electoral registration processes. Without intervention, a similar subset of eligible voters could face the same fate in the 2027 election proceedings, once again waiting another four years for a chance to participate in their democracy.
Closing Statement
Despite initial setbacks in publishing this investigation through traditional media channels, the urgency and importance of these findings necessitated their release. It is with a deep sense of responsibility that I bring this report directly to you, ensuring that the voices of disenfranchised millions are heard.
If you are interested in following up on this story, making a contribution, or wanting to join to my petition to the House of Assembly, kindly reach out at joeladejola [at] gmail [dot] com or shoot me a DM @joeladejola on Twitter, Instagram, or LinkedIn.
Otherwise, you can help by sharing this story!
Expanded Considerations for my Estimate Methodology
- Death Rate Exclusion: The calculations assume all individuals born survive to the age of 18. Integrating the death rate, which was approximately 15.4 per 1,000 people annually in Nigeria for 2004 and 2005, would refine the estimate but also add complexity due to the need for age-specific mortality data over 18 years.
- Even Distribution Assumption: Births were assumed to be evenly distributed throughout the year, which may not accurately reflect real-world seasonality in birth rates.
- Data Source Accuracy: While the population and birth rate data are sourced from reliable databases, it’s important to acknowledge the inherent limitations and potential inaccuracies in historical data collection.
- Migration Effects: The estimates do not account for emigration or immigration, factors that could significantly alter the actual number of 18-year-olds.
I extend my gratitude to my editors and colleagues at ICIR who provided initial guidance and resources. Their early support was crucial in developing this report.
